Eli Lilly CEO: As Indiana reopens, let’s proceed with caution and data

Indiana’s restart plan laid out several statistical measures the state must achieve.

Dave Ricks

The story of a 45-year-old Indianapolis nurse embodies both the heroism and sorrow we’ve seen over these last two months. Known for working 16-hour days at a nursing home, she fell ill with COVID-19 and became the first health care worker to die of the virus in our state.

More than 1,100 Hoosiers have died of COVID-19 since Indiana’s first case was reported in early March. The selflessness of those on the front lines — health care professionals, first responders and workers in essential jobs — exemplify the Hoosier values we hold dearly.

As we begin to reopen, we owe it to them — and all Hoosiers — to proceed gradually, making decisions based on what data shows about the virus’ spread in our communities.

Dave Ricks, shown in 2017, is the president and CEO of Eli Lilly and Co.

Indiana’s restart plan laid out several statistical measures the state must achieve. Through May 1, the numbers showed we have made progress. The rate of Indiana’s new and confirmed cases (about 100 and 2,700 per million people, respectively) and deaths (170 per million) were below national averages. And fewer than two of 10 intensive care beds and one in 10 ventilators statewide were in use for COVID-19 patients.

These data show that the collective efforts of all Hoosiers — citizens staying home, workers and business owners who have shouldered the economic burden, public health officials guided by medical data and expertise — have made a meaningful difference. We have flattened the curve.

Let’s stay on that path. Our fight against this virus isn’t over yet. We have merely stalled its exponential growth.

Since the crisis began, Gov. Eric Holcomb and other officials have made policy judgments based on medical expertise. As we move into the next phase, we must continue to take a data-driven approach to determine when it’s safe to take another step.

A passing cyclist wears a sign in support of about 250 people who lined both sides of Meridian Street adjacent to the Governor's Residence on Saturday, April 18, 2020. The protesters want businesses in Indiana reopened during the coronavirus pandemic.

The absence of cases in your local community isn’t proof we are overblowing the pandemic. It means we’ve been fortunate and the steps we’ve taken, however painful for our economy, have worked. And the numbers aren’t all favorable even as we begin to reopen. In some other countries, for example, requirements call for caseloads less than 20 per million people over a rolling period of seven days. When May began, we were nowhere close to that in Indiana.

As we follow the state’s five-step plan and start to restore part of what we knew as normal, I urge us to use this time to build and sustain the capacities we must have to keep viral spread in a manageable range.

We need to invest in better capacity to protect our most vulnerable, particularly in the state’s more than 500 nursing home facilities, the location of more than one in three Hoosier fatalities.

We must substantially increase Indiana’s capacity to test for the virus and trace contacts of infected individuals — from between 2,000 to 3,000 tests per day now to 20,000 to 30,000 a day, to effectively isolate potential clusters and rule out COVID infections when someone has symptoms.

And we all must continue to practice effective social distancing in all aspects of life, work, social gatherings and public spaces to limit the spread of the virus.

This May, we’ll miss the time-honored traditions of the Indy 500. But we should apply the same kind of precautions our favorite drivers use when restarting, ensuring safety systems are working and then gradually speeding up.

We’ve been under a red flag for the last five weeks, a signal that stops all cars. We’re now moving into a yellow flag period, signaling caution. But we can’t move forward now, or eventually get the green flag, without safety measures in place.

If we do, or if we try to rely on a herd immunity strategy, it’s virtually certain we’ll see the disease flare again. And that will put us back under a red flag. We will need to stop and start the economy again, an economic toll we may not be able to bear, and deaths would multiply in a horrible expansion of lost life.

This is going to be a long race, perhaps 12 to 24 months. We’re still just in the beginning, and the track isn’t yet safe to go full speed. Our path forward is to gradually speed up — in a way that will allow us to go faster as we carefully monitor progress with data, grow testing capacity, strengthen public health infrastructure, and bring treatments and eventually a vaccine to the fight in the months and years ahead.

Let’s proceed — but with caution.

Dave Ricks is chairman and chief executive officer of Eli Lilly and Company.